As the voting procedures and devices change and more opportunities to vote early arise, preelection and exit pollsters will face new challenges for the standard telephone surveys of voters at home and face-to-face interviews with voters leaving the polls. Bush and Kerry debated the country’s foreign policy in the wake of the 2001 attacks and the Iraq invasion and occupation. Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner. One reason for the difference in comparable results is that there was a significant third party candidate in 1968, George Wallace, who actually won electoral votes, while there was no such candidate in 1976, when only the margin was calculated between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter according to Mosteller Measure 5. The exact question wording was: “Who, in your opinion, won the debate?” Interviews were taken the night of the debate. "Voters were not feeling a level of sufficient pain to reject the incumbent," Mellman said. In 2004, the punch-card ballots were still widely used in some states. Data are presented in table 1 for 19 different preelection estimates of the outcome of the 2004 presidential election. His 2.4 percentage point victory was the closest for an incumbent president, just ahead of Woodrow Wilson’s 3.1 percentage point victory in … [13][14], The issue returned to prominence in 2004 when Florida announced another planned purge, again based on a list of felons. [56], One paper (and a follow-up book) concluded that discrepancies in the exit polls were evidence that the election results were off,[57][58] though others alleged this paper was unscientific. Registered voters who watched; sample sizes were 531, 515, and 566, respectively. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. While the focus of this discussion is on the tracking poll estimates, graphical presentations of public polling data available from the Web site of Steven Ruggles (www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/2004.htm) suggest that in measures of presidential approval, for example, Gallup produced systematically higher levels of approval for George W. Bush across his first term, while Zogby produced systematically lower levels. CBS News obtained data through Knowledge Networks on the Web from “undecided” voters who watched the debate, and it assessed Kerry the winner by a 43 percent to 28 percent margin. Based upon the relative precision of the estimates in relation to the election outcome, there are low values for both the Mosteller measures. The average value for Mosteller Measure 3 across the 19 estimates is 1.66, while the average value for Mosteller Measure 5 is 2.14. [2] Some officials rejected voter registration forms on grounds that were contested, such as a failure to use paper of a particular weight (in Ohio)[citation needed] or a failure to check a box on the form (Florida). But in the 2004 campaign, Gallup and Zogby produced tracking polls in the range of about once a week while devoting more effort to producing estimates of support in a select set of “battleground states.”5. © Stanford University. It is difficult to characterize the number of polls produced in the United States during the general election period, usually considered to be between Labor Day and Election Day (September 6 through November 2, 2004). All polls listed were conducted by telephone unless noted otherwise. Polling and analysis about the 2004 U.S. Election. In Ohio, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell ruled that Ohio would not count provisional ballots, even those from properly registered voters, that were submitted at the wrong precinct. "The shift that occurred in this election was among women," the polling expert said. Hispanics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate and Voters. In some cases, Republicans challenged or prepared to challenge the validity of many new registrations, citing instances of fictitious names such as Mary Poppins appearing on the voter rolls. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax [45] In some instances, officials argued that last-minute litigation over Ralph Nader's ballot status or other issues had prevented them from finalizing the absentee ballots as early as they wanted to. This is not at all good news for my party. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. Michael W. Traugott, The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election, Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 69, Issue 5, Special Issu 2005, Pages 642–654, https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfi061. [1], There were also complaints about the rejection of registrations by government agencies. Next Page → Refine Your Results. While the size of the vote for minor parties has been a source of discussion in calculating these measures in recent presidential elections since 1992, this was not an issue in 2004, as Ralph Nader received approximately 0.3 percent. [18][19], John Pappageorge, a Republican state legislator in Michigan, said in summer 2004, "If we do not suppress the Detroit vote, we're going to have a tough time in this election." "To the extent that voting is habit-forming, I think the Democrats have much to fear and the Republicans have much to be congratulated on in terms of motivating, mobilizing, signing up and delivering [this group] to the polls," he said. There were also some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firms and collaborators ended up producing different estimates of the outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the mode of data collection. Most of this was due to the increase in daily tracking polls, as in the 2000 campaign three firms (Gallup, Voter.com, and Zogby) each released results from more than 35 national tracking polls. Frequencies of publicly released trial heat polls conducted between Labor Day and Election Day. The exit polls were not without controversy, but this was a function of leaked earlier results rather than early or incorrect projections on election night (Traugott, Highton, and Brady 2005). [11], State efforts to purge voter rolls have led to disputes, notably in Florida. Rather, he said, the initiatives helped mobilize voters across party lines. The average value of A for 1996 is –0.0838, suggesting a slight Democratic bias in the polls that overestimated Clinton’s margin over Dole. [54] On December 5, 2004 Charles Stewart III of MIT released a revised report which, he said, used pre-corrected data. After the first and third debates, the question wording was: “Who won the debate?” After the second debate, the question wording was: “Who won the second presidential debate?”, Registered voters who watched; sample sizes of 515, 613, and 511, respectively. But he noted that "huge differences" exist between Cuban Americans and Mexican Americans, and between recent arrivals and longtime residents: "It is not one vote. (Exhibit K), 2004 U.S. presidential election controversy, exit polls, North Carolina Commissioner of Agriculture, "Florida flooded with pre-emptive election lawsuits", "Investigation into Trashed Voter Registrations", "Ohio aids probe of bogus voter registry forms", Analysis of Alleged Fraud in Briefs Supporting Crawford Respondents, "Florida Net Too Wide in Purge of Voter Rolls", "Florida Voting Rights Lawsuit Settled; NAACP LDF To Monitor State's Implementation of Landmark Agreement", "Florida Voting Rights Lawsuit Ends in Settlement", "Jesse Jackson: 2004 Election 'Ain't Over' – 12/08/2004", "Protestors Ransack Bush/Cheney Headquarters In Orlando", "Second Break-In Hits A Bush Office In State", "Florida GOP Workers Claim Intimidation By Labor Protesters", Voting Problems in Ohio Spur Call for Overhaul, "Voting standards are the key to avoiding long lines on Election Day", "Several Factors Contributed to 'Lost' Voters in Ohio", "Election day lines caused by voting machine shortage and other factors", Hearing – 2004 election and the implementation of the Help America Vote Act, New Study Shows 50 Million Voters Will Use Electronic Voting Systems, 32 Million Still with Punch Cards in 2004, Electronic Voting Offers Opportunities and Presents Challenges, "Voting machines remain unsecured, expert warns", "State bans electronic balloting in 4 counties", Federal Efforts to Improve Security and Reliability of Electronic Voting Systems Are Under Way, but Key Activities Need to Be Completed, "Ohio provisional ballot ruling reversed", "Sandusky County Democratic Party; the Ohio Democratic Party; Farm Labor Organizing Committee; North Central Ohio Building and Construction Trades Council; and Local 245 International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Plaintiffs-Appellees, v. J. Kenneth Blackwell, Defendant-Appellant, and Gregory L. Arnold; Glenn A. Wolfe; and Thomas W. Noe, Intervenors-Appellants: Appeal from the United States District Court for the Northern District of Ohio at Toledo", "Hurdles Remain for American Voters Who Live Overseas", "Report Says Problems Led to Skewed Surveying Data", "Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology", "Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate", Addendum to Voting Machines and the Underestimate of the Bush Vote.

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